Riviera Maya · Quintana Roo
Riviera Audit / Deal Analyzer
Acquisition workflow
Deal Analyzer
Underwrite a Riviera Maya property the way an investment committee would: returns with and without debt, after Mexican tax, through low season and under hurricane, sargassum, oversupply and strong-peso scenarios.
Deal inputs
Blank fields use Playa del Carmen defaults — each one's source is listed under Assumptions.
Returns
Year-one operating figures; IRRs over the full hold including sale.
Levered IRR
6.6%
Target 10%
After-tax IRR
3.1%
Unlevered IRR
6.6%
Equity multiple
1.47×
Cap rate (yr 1)
6.63%
Gross yield
13.81%
Cash-on-cash
5.94%
DSCR
No debt
Break-even occupancy
20%
vs 68% assumed
NPV @ hurdle
-$65,607
Equity required
$390,250
Low-season reserve
$0
Worst run of loss-making months
Year-one cash flow by month
Pre-tax, after debt service. Riviera seasonality: winter high season, Sep–Oct hurricane trough.
Cash surplusCash shortfall
Projection
USD. Exit in the final year.
| Year | Occupancy | Gross revenue | Operating costs | NOI | Debt service | Income tax | After-tax cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 68% | $48,346 | $25,156 | $23,190 | $0 | $12,086 | $11,104 |
| 2 | 68% | $49,796 | $26,002 | $23,794 | $0 | $12,449 | $11,345 |
| 3 | 68% | $51,290 | $26,878 | $24,412 | $0 | $12,823 | $11,590 |
| 4 | 68% | $52,829 | $27,783 | $25,046 | $0 | $13,207 | $11,838 |
| 5 | 68% | $54,414 | $28,720 | $25,694 | $0 | $13,603 | $12,090 |
| 6 | 68% | $56,046 | $29,689 | $26,357 | $0 | $14,012 | $12,345 |
| 7 | 68% | $57,728 | $30,692 | $27,036 | $0 | $14,432 | $12,604 |
Exit year 7: sale $424,639 − selling costs $27,602 − loan payoff $0 − tax on sale $3,251 = $393,787 net to you.
Assumptions
Simplified Mexican tax model for planning only. Rates and eligibility depend on residency, entity structure and current law; confirm with a Mexican contador before relying on after-tax figures.
| Assumption | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Closing costs (% of price) | 6.5 | Seeded zone table for Playa del Carmen (src/lib/marketData.ts) |
| Fideicomiso setup (USD) | 2,500 | Typical bank trust setup fee for foreign buyers in the restricted zone (USD) |
| Rent growth (%/yr) | 3 | Platform default: roughly USD inflation |
| Expense growth (%/yr) | 4 | Platform default: peso-denominated costs run above USD inflation |
| Property appreciation (%/yr) | 2.8 | Seeded zone table for Playa del Carmen (src/lib/marketData.ts): trailing YoY price change used as forward appreciation |
| Management fee (% of gross) | 20 | Typical full-service STR management fee in the corridor (18–25% of gross) |
| Booking platform fee (% of gross) | 3 | Airbnb split-fee host share (3%); use ~15% for host-only fee listings |
| Maintenance (% of gross) | 5 | Platform default repairs & cleaning supplies (% of gross revenue) |
| FF&E reserve (% of gross) | 4 | Platform default FF&E reserve; salt air shortens furniture/appliance life |
| Predial (% of value) | 0.12 | Predial in Quintana Roo is typically 0.1–0.3% of cadastral value |
| Insurance (USD/yr) | 1,225 | Platform default incl. hurricane cover (0.25–0.5% of value) |
| Fideicomiso fee (USD/yr) | 600 | Typical annual bank trust fee (USD 500–800) |
| HOA / cuota de mantenimiento (USD/mo) | 400 | Investor input |
| Utilities & internet (USD/mo) | 220 | Investor input |
| Selling costs (% of sale) | 6.5 | Broker commission (5–6%) plus notario/admin on sale |
| Discount rate for NPV (%) | 10 | Platform default hurdle rate |
| Average occupancy (%) | 68 | Investor input |
| Average nightly rate (USD) | 195 | Investor input |
| Seasonality | Riviera monthly profile | Platform default seasonal profile (high season Dec–Apr, sargassum May–Aug, hurricane trough Sep–Oct). Replace with zone-level occupancy data when available. |
Riviera stress tests
Each scenario re-underwrites the whole hold with the shock applied.
| Scenario | Levered IRR | vs base | After-tax IRR | Yr-1 NOI | Min DSCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base case Assumptions as entered. | 6.6% | +0.0 pts | 3.1% | $23,190 | — |
| Tourism boom New Tulum airport and Tren Maya lift arrivals: +5 pts occupancy, +8% nightly rate, +2 pts appreciation. | 9.6% | +3.0 pts | 5.2% | $28,431 | — |
| Tourism slowdown US recession or travel advisory: −10 pts occupancy, −10% nightly rate, −2 pts appreciation. | 2.8% | -3.8 pts | 0.1% | $15,552 | — |
| Direct hurricane hit Category 3+ landfall in year 2: occupancy −35 pts that year and repairs of 5% of the purchase price (net of insurance). | 5.2% | -1.4 pts | 2.1% | $23,190 | — |
| Severe sargassum years Heavy sargassum every summer: −6 pts annual occupancy, −5% nightly rate on beachfront demand. | 5.4% | -1.2 pts | 2.4% | $18,791 | — |
| Oversupply Pipeline deliveries outpace demand (as in Tulum 2023–25): −8 pts occupancy, −12% nightly rate, −3 pts appreciation. | 2.0% | -4.5 pts | -0.8% | $15,842 | — |
| Strong peso MXN strengthens 15% vs USD: peso-denominated costs rise in dollar terms while USD nightly rates stay flat. | 6.1% | -0.5 pts | 2.7% | $21,482 | — |
| STR restrictions Municipal short-term rental limits or registration costs: −15 pts occupancy, +5% operating costs. | 4.4% | -2.2 pts | 1.7% | $15,360 | — |
| Rate shock Financing costs +2 pts (floating or refinanced debt). | 6.6% | +0.0 pts | 3.1% | $23,190 | — |
What moves the return most
Each driver flexed on its own; the rest held at base.
Base case 6.6% levered IRR
Lowers IRRRaises IRR
Range of outcomes
1,000 simulated holds with random occupancy, rate, appreciation and cost shocks, and a 15% chance of a hurricane year.
P10 IRR
2.7%
Median IRR
6.5%
P90 IRR
10.2%
Chance of losing money
1%
Chance below 10%
89%
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The Riviera Maya, measured.